India's exports are unlikely to get an immediate boost from a depreciating rupee, which touched an all-time low on Monday, driven by rising commodity prices. The rupee fell to 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05 per cent weaker than the previous close. Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 on Monday at $139 per barrel, after the US and European allies explored a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the potential return of Iranian crude oil to global markets increased supply fears.
The apparel and engineering sectors have already witnessed the trend in the past one week. If this continues, it can have an impact on the overall export demand in the coming months, considering that Europe is the largest national export market for India.
The government may soon give the green light to bilateral trade between Russia and India in their national currencies to avoid any trade disruptions, multiple people aware of the matter said. While the Department of Commerce has recommended the proposal, an announcement is likely to be made by the finance ministry after further deliberations between the Department of Economic Affairs and Department of Financial Services. "The finance ministry will take a call on how to peg the two currencies," a senior government official told Business Standard. In the past, the two nations have had rupee-rouble trade, and when such an arrangement is implemented again, it will bypass the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West.
Fitch Ratings on Monday cautioned that the Indian government has little fiscal headroom at its disposal to respond to possible shocks to growth given the country's lowest investment grade credit rating with a negative outlook. "India's public debt/GDP ratio, at about 87 per cent in FY21, is well above the median of around 60% for 'BBB' rated sovereigns. "We revised the Outlook on India's rating to Negative, from Stable, in June 2020, partly owing to our assumptions about the impact of the pandemic on public finance metrics. "The government has little fiscal headroom at its current rating level to respond to possible shocks to growth," it said in a report.
'The robust tax collections give the finance minister a fair amount of headroom for an expansionary fiscal policy.'
India and China have mostly set aside their bilateral differences in order to champion the cause of developing countries at the World Trade Organisation (WTO). That seems to be changing. During the latest round of China's trade policy review, India questioned its northern neighbour's claim that it was a developing country, since, going by the World Bank's definition, its per capita income belongs to that of an upper middle income country. "As per the per capita income level, the Chinese economy belongs to 'upper-middle income'. "How can China still claim to be a developing country? "What are the indicators which China is using to claim such a status?" India asked.
Raghuram Rajan, the PM's honorary economic advisor, said in 2006, 'It is important for India to exchange its paternalistic, directive government, which seeks to remedy every wrong through a subsidy, a quota, or a scheme, for one that creates an enabling environment for the people and unleashes their entrepreneurial zeal.' Two years later, his words seem prescient. But how much of what he says should be done will be done by the government in the limited tenure it has left.
Three alternative approaches under consideration envisage addressing the flaws of the domestic market, broadening the foreign institutional investor framework and replacing the FII regime with a QFI framework. By reducing the complexity of obtaining permits, foreign investors will be encouraged to us onshore Indian stock market platforms. Individual investors will be allowed to trade on Indian bourses by opening a demat account and a bank account.
The decision by the Union government and the Reserve Bank of India to infuse Rs 1,25,000 crore (Rs 1,250 billion) into the banking system in the last two weeks alone is unlikely to fuel inflation, say economists, since this infusion will only meet the basic demand and not lead to a spillover.
The government is discussing a number of policy measures to insulate India from the impact of the global financial crisis including further banking reform, industrial de-control, auctioning all loss-making public sector units, foreign investment in retail, amending labour laws and notifying important pending legislation like the Delhi Rent Control Act.
Having made no headway to amend a 26-year-old double taxation avoidance agreement with Mauritius, the finance ministry has hardened its stance against broadening India's economic engagement with the island nation.
In effect, the government proposes to relax the norms with regard to foreign participation in multi-brand retail by opening up these specialised sectors, while keeping grocery and consumer goods retail out of bounds. The move comes months after the Left parties, which were opposed to any relaxation of FDI norms for the retail sector, pulled out of the United Progressive Alliance government.
Move to make investing in sectors with FDI cap easier.
The relaxation will apply to those sectors that have composite caps (foreign direct investment or FDI plus FII). "The move will not impact sectors like banking and insurance which are governed by Acts of Parliament. However, sectors with composite caps which see administrative control like telecommunication services, broadcast services like direct-to-home and FM radio will benefit," a Delhi based FDI policy expert told Business Standard.
Mobile telecom service providers are up against a new problem -- unidentified operators have been found to take out subsidised handsets from their 'bundled' connections and ship them to overseas markets at significantly higher prices.
The government may liberalise external commercial borrowing rules in the next few days, especially for the infrastructure sector including capital-intensive ones like telecom, a Finance Ministry official said on Friday.
More than nuclear power, India stands to gain access to a wide range of dual-use goods and technologies, from which it was barred, as a result of the waiver by the 45-country Nuclear Suppliers' Group.
It has been nearly four months since Sidharth Punshi, 34, former executive director at Goldman Sachs, joined Jefferies International, a global investment bank and institutional securities firm, as the managing director and country head for India. In a recent interview, Punshi told Business Standard that despite the tight liquidity scenario and a challenging global situation, Indian companies continue to chase merger and acquisition deals abroad.
Promoters of Rajasthan Royals look to spin off team's success for better valuations.
The notification with regard to the Sixth Pay Commission award is ready and is currently being approved by statutory authorities. Sources said the dearness allowance effective this July is also likely to be announced the same day.
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